MDI North America
The US MDI market has seen notable shifts from November 2024 through January 2025, reflecting changing market conditions. MDI prices increased in November, primarily driven by tight supply conditions, which were caused by production disruptions. In December 2024, prices stabilised due to the lower demand levels typically seen during the festive period. Prices began to decline by January 2025 in alignment with the seasonal trend of weaker demand during the off-peak period.
While supply continues to face disruptions, the current level is sufficient to meet buyer needs. The lower demand, a seasonal characteristic, means buyers are not facing significant challenges in finding the product despite the supply
issues, and this situation is not expected to change in Q1.
MDI Europe
The European market remains largely
unchanged from Q4 2024. However, there were slight decreases in contract prices, driven by healthy supply and weak demand. MDI demand is typically weaker during this time of year.
As expected, demand declined in
December due to planned shutdowns at many downstream factories during the festive period, and demand remained sluggish in the early weeks of the new year as factories gradually restart. Construction demand is also in its off-peak season and was unlikely to pick up until February or even March, depending on weather conditions.
MDI China
From December 2024 to January 2025, MDI demand continued to weaken, but supply recovered as shutdowns ended. As a response, some domestic supplies announced shutdowns to reduce supply and sustain the prices for MDI.
On the supply side, operating rates of pure MDI units recovered by 20% to around 70% from early December 2024 to January 2025. Downstream, demand was expected to decline further in the winter and as the Spring Festival holiday approached.
TDI North America
The US market has been stable once again. TDI supply has been long, and buyers had no issues in securing TDI given the demand levels. One producer was reported to have a TDI turnaround in the US in Q4, but this has not been confirmed.
In terms of demand, the comfort and bedding sector saw a small uptick in buying before Christmas, but the increase was minimal. Automotive sectors are
stable and construction has fared well, but it was expected to weaken until the spring. TDI prices are expected to be
lower until demand improves.
TDI Europe
The European TDI market is reported as well supplied and views on TDI availability are indicating the market is still long. In terms of prices, softening was reported for January on the back of enough supply and weak demand.
Demand should still have been weaker for the first few weeks of the year. The market is expected to remain balanced for the first quarter and possibly the
second quarter. Further price softening is expected to take place.
TDI China
TDI markets are in the traditional low season, but supply tightened as buyers
increased purchasing before the Spring Festival. Domestic TDI spot prices, produced in east China, strengthened in January due to the increase in demand. From the supply side, the operation rates of TDI units recovered to over 70% in January.
Polyether polyols North America
There are no reported problems with polyether polyols availability, and supply remains balanced. Prices declined in Q4 due to the decrease in the costs of feedstock propylene.
Demand is expected to slow down now due to seasonality and not pick up again until next spring. In the meantime, the supply/demand picture for polyols remains balanced. Demand is now in the off-peak season until early spring, so little change is expected in the balances until then.
Polyether polyols Europe
The European polyether polyols market is reported to have weakened further as demand is low and supply is readily available. Upstream, propylene oxide availability is heard to be good, and the market is overall well supplied, but downstream demand has been subdued as it is now the off-peak season.
Construction would not pick up again until February/March time, depending on the weather. Prices are likely to remain stable unless feedstock costs move
upwards suddenly.
Polyether polyols China
In December 2024 and early January 2025, flexible polyether polyols prices declined, driven by lower propylene oxide market prices and reduced offers from producers. Producers cut prices to stimulate buying interest and sell actively, influenced by lower propylene oxide prices and expected weaker demand ahead of the Chinese New Year holiday. Market sentiment remained weak, as many
buyers exited the market gradually as the Chinese New Year holiday approached.
Regina Sousa is consultant for polyurethanes and intermediates and olefins at TecnonOrbiChem
